* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO EP022021 05/31/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 41 46 49 50 48 44 37 33 29 25 21 16 N/A V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 41 46 49 50 48 44 37 33 29 25 21 16 N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 32 33 33 31 28 25 21 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 2 2 1 4 15 18 14 15 12 15 13 12 20 18 18 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 5 5 7 7 7 8 4 9 6 5 3 4 -2 -3 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 330 1 267 262 270 278 272 262 202 230 264 255 212 195 212 217 215 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.1 28.6 27.9 27.4 27.1 26.6 25.9 25.7 25.5 25.1 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 163 162 161 160 160 158 153 147 140 134 132 127 120 117 115 111 108 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -52.4 -52.0 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -52.5 -52.9 -53.5 -53.6 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.4 -0.3 0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.2 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 3 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 68 69 68 69 70 69 68 67 60 55 51 48 44 40 40 37 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 11 12 13 14 16 15 15 15 15 14 13 12 11 9 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -21 -25 -31 -24 -23 -26 -17 -2 13 12 18 20 10 6 -1 -13 200 MB DIV 106 93 117 127 97 91 81 61 24 -6 -2 -2 15 9 39 1 -1 700-850 TADV -7 -7 -5 -3 -4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 LAND (KM) 755 767 787 793 801 854 909 938 944 944 953 968 1005 1029 1028 1025 1044 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.4 12.8 13.2 13.6 14.2 14.6 14.8 15.0 15.2 15.4 15.7 16.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.1 107.1 108.0 108.8 109.5 110.9 111.9 112.5 113.3 113.8 114.4 115.2 116.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 8 8 6 4 4 4 3 4 5 5 3 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 34 33 40 49 56 34 19 15 10 7 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 40.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 26. 28. 30. 30. 30. 30. 29. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -12. -11. -10. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 9. 5. 1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 16. 19. 20. 18. 14. 7. 3. -1. -5. -9. -14. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.0 106.1 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022021 TWO 05/31/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.83 11.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 5.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 108.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.73 9.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.1 19.6 to 1.3 0.96 11.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 4.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 86.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 -7.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.38 2.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.60 0.9 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 50% is 4.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 41% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 41% is 7.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 35% is 7.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.3% 49.7% 43.0% 30.0% 0.0% 40.8% 41.1% 35.2% Logistic: 4.5% 30.5% 21.4% 10.6% 0.4% 9.1% 1.5% 1.7% Bayesian: 1.3% 1.0% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.1% 27.1% 21.9% 13.6% 0.1% 16.7% 14.2% 12.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 19.0% 6.0% 3.0% 2.0% 5.0% 4.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022021 TWO 05/31/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##