* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO EP022021 05/31/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 34 37 38 41 44 47 45 41 34 31 27 23 20 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 31 34 37 38 41 44 47 45 41 34 31 27 23 20 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 32 32 31 29 25 22 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 3 1 5 11 14 14 11 11 13 18 14 17 21 16 19 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 5 4 6 14 4 9 8 6 5 3 2 -2 3 0 0 SHEAR DIR 331 267 42 262 270 253 278 246 219 251 275 246 220 226 233 237 268 SST (C) 29.9 29.7 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.2 28.6 28.0 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.5 26.3 26.2 25.8 25.3 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 164 162 159 158 158 155 148 142 134 131 129 126 124 122 118 113 108 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -51.9 -52.3 -52.6 -52.2 -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 -52.4 -53.4 -53.6 -54.0 -54.0 -54.4 -54.1 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 0.0 -0.1 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 70 70 69 70 71 69 68 64 56 51 50 48 46 43 42 40 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 14 14 14 15 14 15 14 14 12 11 9 8 6 5 3 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -28 -30 -29 -21 -24 -29 -20 -12 0 0 4 3 -10 -18 -31 -46 200 MB DIV 75 105 131 121 107 130 40 37 8 -19 -13 -9 -9 -9 2 -27 1 700-850 TADV -6 -3 -3 -4 -6 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 2 0 2 0 LAND (KM) 795 811 826 834 849 886 932 933 973 992 1004 1026 1079 1105 1121 1116 1111 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.6 13.0 13.3 13.6 14.2 14.6 15.0 15.0 15.1 15.2 15.4 15.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.2 108.1 109.0 109.6 110.2 111.3 112.2 113.0 114.0 114.6 115.0 115.7 116.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 8 7 7 5 4 4 4 2 3 5 5 3 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 44 46 54 56 54 25 15 10 6 7 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 26. 27. 29. 29. 29. 29. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -12. -10. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 1. -0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 8. 11. 14. 17. 15. 11. 4. 1. -3. -7. -10. -16. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.2 107.2 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022021 TWO 05/31/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.83 10.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 4.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 107.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.73 8.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.5 19.6 to 1.3 0.83 9.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 3.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 82.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 -7.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 50.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.46 3.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.68 0.9 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 3.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 38% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 41% is 6.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 30% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.1% 46.8% 37.2% 25.1% 0.0% 38.2% 40.6% 29.6% Logistic: 9.9% 40.6% 29.6% 15.1% 1.3% 12.8% 3.0% 2.5% Bayesian: 3.9% 1.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% Consensus: 9.0% 29.5% 22.6% 13.5% 0.4% 17.1% 14.6% 10.7% DTOPS: 1.0% 12.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022021 TWO 05/31/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##