* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLANCA EP022021 05/31/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 44 48 52 55 55 52 45 36 30 26 23 18 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 40 44 48 52 55 55 52 45 36 30 26 23 18 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 38 40 42 42 41 38 33 29 25 21 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 2 5 7 13 21 18 13 14 16 14 15 11 23 24 36 50 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 6 8 9 6 7 11 6 5 4 2 2 0 4 -4 -7 SHEAR DIR 226 166 218 244 253 285 280 228 215 242 259 229 232 243 264 269 265 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.2 28.4 27.8 27.3 27.0 26.6 26.0 25.9 25.7 25.3 25.1 25.0 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 160 159 158 158 155 146 139 134 131 127 121 121 118 112 111 111 103 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.9 -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 -53.6 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 2 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 2 3 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 68 68 69 69 67 64 61 54 49 44 42 38 37 36 36 39 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 14 14 15 14 14 14 13 13 12 11 10 9 7 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR -27 -30 -27 -23 -20 -27 -22 -6 2 10 9 10 17 12 -5 -20 -21 200 MB DIV 110 123 112 113 99 75 21 21 -18 -34 0 0 -17 1 0 -7 30 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -6 -6 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 LAND (KM) 774 792 819 823 832 891 877 875 904 932 959 1029 1132 1165 1173 1241 1374 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.5 13.7 14.1 14.5 15.1 15.5 15.8 15.9 16.1 16.3 16.4 16.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.4 109.2 109.9 110.4 110.9 112.1 112.9 113.6 114.4 115.2 115.9 117.0 118.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 8 7 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 6 5 2 3 6 9 HEAT CONTENT 42 52 57 48 29 14 10 7 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 48.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 15. 19. 21. 22. 23. 23. 22. 21. 20. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -5. -8. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 13. 12. 7. 2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 13. 17. 20. 20. 17. 10. 1. -5. -9. -12. -17. -23. -31. -41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.2 108.4 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022021 BLANCA 05/31/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.76 13.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 8.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 111.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.75 12.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 19.6 to 1.3 0.74 11.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 4.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 9.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 120.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 -9.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.41 3.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 3.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 1.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 70% is 5.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 58% is 6.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 7.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 9.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 41% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 31% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 27.2% 69.8% 58.1% 44.4% 39.4% 41.0% 31.1% 15.2% Logistic: 30.8% 57.8% 51.2% 31.6% 4.4% 10.7% 0.6% 1.1% Bayesian: 22.6% 8.6% 12.7% 5.3% 0.1% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 26.9% 45.4% 40.7% 27.1% 14.7% 17.6% 10.7% 5.4% DTOPS: 4.0% 19.0% 9.0% 5.0% 5.0% 2.0% 3.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022021 BLANCA 05/31/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##