* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLANCA EP022021 06/01/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 55 58 59 61 58 51 43 33 27 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 51 55 58 59 61 58 51 43 33 27 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 50 53 54 54 51 45 39 33 27 23 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 9 11 17 18 15 14 13 18 17 13 14 22 24 31 43 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 7 5 5 7 7 10 5 4 4 5 4 -1 2 1 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 234 243 247 243 246 271 255 245 238 272 239 228 250 267 275 266 261 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.1 28.8 28.1 27.5 27.2 26.9 26.3 25.8 26.0 25.7 25.3 25.1 24.6 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 157 154 151 143 136 133 130 124 119 121 117 114 112 106 101 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -52.4 -52.3 -52.1 -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 -52.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 -54.1 -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 66 66 67 66 64 63 57 51 45 40 34 32 32 33 32 37 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 13 14 13 14 15 14 14 13 12 10 9 7 6 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -20 -14 -11 -15 -20 -13 9 16 18 12 13 11 10 -7 -18 -10 200 MB DIV 117 122 124 138 115 39 28 -25 -33 -15 -17 -22 -9 -1 -31 18 30 700-850 TADV -4 -8 -5 -1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 LAND (KM) 766 780 799 817 839 874 857 869 906 950 1008 1074 1157 1186 1211 1275 1359 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.0 14.3 14.7 15.0 15.4 15.8 16.0 16.0 16.1 16.3 16.3 16.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.1 109.7 110.3 110.9 111.4 112.5 113.2 113.9 114.6 115.5 116.6 117.5 118.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 4 5 5 4 4 5 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 48 54 43 26 18 11 8 6 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 45.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. 13. 12. 11. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -11. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. -13. -14. -14. -13. -12. -11. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -5. -5. -7. -7. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 11. 6. 2. -1. -4. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 10. 13. 14. 16. 13. 6. -2. -12. -18. -24. -28. -34. -38. -46. -55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 13.7 109.1 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022021 BLANCA 06/01/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.65 11.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 11.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 123.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.81 13.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.40 6.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 8.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 9.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 193.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.69 -8.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.34 3.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 3.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.33 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 39% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 70% is 5.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 60% is 7.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 48% is 7.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 8.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 51% is 7.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 38% is 6.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 39.3% 69.9% 60.0% 48.1% 36.4% 50.7% 38.4% 11.9% Logistic: 19.8% 25.3% 23.4% 11.2% 2.4% 4.1% 0.3% 0.7% Bayesian: 24.8% 6.1% 7.6% 3.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 28.0% 33.8% 30.3% 20.8% 13.0% 18.4% 12.9% 4.2% DTOPS: 14.0% 16.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022021 BLANCA 06/01/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##