* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLANCA EP022021 06/01/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 54 55 54 52 48 43 36 32 25 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 52 54 55 54 52 48 43 36 32 25 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 51 51 50 47 41 35 29 24 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 16 15 14 15 13 10 16 15 13 19 23 28 36 41 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 7 7 6 9 5 7 10 9 7 0 0 0 -3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 238 233 239 253 265 259 250 229 263 233 229 243 272 282 278 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.2 29.0 28.5 28.2 27.8 27.5 27.1 26.8 26.0 25.8 26.2 25.5 25.3 25.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 155 153 147 144 139 136 132 129 121 119 123 116 113 112 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.2 -51.9 -52.6 -53.0 -52.6 -52.9 -52.3 -53.2 -53.0 -53.7 -53.7 -54.0 -53.7 -53.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 2 2 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 64 64 62 62 59 57 51 51 47 42 41 40 39 42 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 15 15 16 15 15 16 15 14 14 12 11 8 7 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -10 -14 -14 -20 -11 -4 -1 -5 -6 -9 0 -7 -17 -33 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 114 134 129 108 70 22 -6 -28 -10 4 11 -18 -25 -16 24 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 2 2 3 0 0 0 0 -1 0 1 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 770 788 809 834 859 860 866 874 930 990 1055 1128 1189 1230 1267 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.5 14.7 15.0 15.2 15.5 15.6 15.9 15.8 15.8 15.9 15.9 16.0 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.8 110.3 110.8 111.3 111.8 112.4 112.9 113.8 114.7 115.7 116.8 117.8 118.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 4 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 3 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 35 25 16 12 9 8 5 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 28.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. 9. 8. 6. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -11. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -13. -12. -11. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -3. -4. -7. -7. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 4. 2. -2. -7. -14. -18. -25. -30. -37. -42. -47. -49. -51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 14.2 109.8 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022021 BLANCA 06/01/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.56 4.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 111.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.75 5.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.25 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 4.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 3.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 216.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.66 -3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.23 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 56.6 to 0.0 0.97 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.32 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 2.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.9% 34.2% 23.5% 22.2% 13.5% 20.2% 14.8% 8.7% Logistic: 1.7% 5.0% 3.6% 1.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% Bayesian: 1.1% 0.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.2% 13.4% 9.2% 7.8% 4.6% 6.9% 4.9% 3.0% DTOPS: 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022021 BLANCA 06/01/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##