* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLANCA EP022021 06/01/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 42 41 39 36 33 28 25 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 43 42 41 39 36 33 28 25 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 43 40 38 35 30 25 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 15 14 14 16 13 15 18 17 16 20 19 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 7 8 7 11 8 11 9 9 1 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 234 232 246 257 270 249 226 259 265 248 242 254 271 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 28.6 28.3 28.0 27.8 27.4 27.1 26.8 26.1 25.6 25.9 25.3 25.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 148 145 142 139 134 132 129 122 117 120 113 110 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -52.6 -53.0 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -54.1 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.4 -0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.4 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 62 60 62 61 57 53 48 47 44 44 45 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 15 14 14 15 16 14 14 12 11 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -13 -15 -21 -18 -5 4 3 -3 -12 0 -6 -23 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 121 132 107 70 42 5 -16 -23 -1 -7 -26 -6 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 1 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 4 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 801 824 848 870 860 856 875 910 959 1017 1074 1110 1144 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.9 15.1 15.3 15.5 15.7 15.8 15.9 16.0 16.1 16.4 16.6 16.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.7 111.2 111.6 112.0 112.4 112.9 113.6 114.5 115.5 116.5 117.6 118.4 119.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 4 4 3 4 4 5 5 4 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 26 17 14 11 9 7 5 4 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 689 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. 9. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -12. -11. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. -0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -17. -20. -24. -28. -32. -38. -38. -38. -40. -42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.7 110.7 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022021 BLANCA 06/01/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.55 3.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 2.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 94.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.66 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.24 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.51 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 212.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.67 -3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.12 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.05 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 17.3% 16.1% 0.0% 0.0% 14.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 5.9% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022021 BLANCA 06/01/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##