* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLANCA EP022021 06/02/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 42 40 39 35 31 26 22 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 44 42 40 39 35 31 26 22 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 43 40 38 35 30 24 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 13 14 17 12 12 18 20 16 17 14 17 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 10 9 12 7 8 10 10 5 1 1 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 235 240 246 259 254 225 240 265 255 241 246 258 280 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.3 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.2 27.0 26.5 25.7 26.1 26.0 25.5 25.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 145 141 139 137 133 132 126 118 122 121 115 113 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -52.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.7 -53.7 -54.0 -53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 2 3 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 60 62 60 59 56 50 50 47 46 46 48 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 15 15 16 16 16 14 13 12 11 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -12 -17 -16 -9 6 1 5 -14 -14 -18 -29 -26 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 129 101 60 39 23 0 -12 -5 -16 -12 -4 -18 -27 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 0 -1 -1 0 -1 0 0 3 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 853 872 886 879 873 876 908 968 1014 1083 1167 1226 1245 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.0 15.2 15.4 15.5 15.7 15.7 15.7 15.9 16.0 15.9 15.8 16.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.4 111.8 112.2 112.5 112.8 113.4 114.1 115.2 116.2 117.3 118.3 119.1 119.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 4 3 3 3 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 13 11 9 8 6 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 720 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 9. 8. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -6. -10. -14. -19. -23. -26. -28. -32. -34. -34. -34. -36. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.8 111.4 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022021 BLANCA 06/02/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.52 3.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 2.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.54 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.29 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 220.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.66 -3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.09 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.17 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 17.0% 15.5% 14.0% 8.4% 14.0% 11.2% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.8% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 6.3% 5.5% 4.7% 2.8% 4.7% 3.7% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022021 BLANCA 06/02/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##