* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLANCA EP022021 06/02/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 36 34 31 26 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 38 36 34 31 26 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 38 35 33 30 24 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 15 16 13 11 18 24 18 13 16 22 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 11 10 13 12 5 3 8 10 0 0 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 239 247 260 252 234 258 272 277 258 252 271 277 275 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.2 26.9 26.2 26.0 26.4 25.6 25.4 25.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 143 141 139 136 133 130 123 121 126 117 114 112 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.9 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 2 3 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 62 61 59 57 53 51 47 47 48 48 49 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 15 16 15 15 14 13 12 11 9 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -20 -15 -15 -4 0 2 -10 -17 -19 -25 -32 -26 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 102 50 24 15 1 -35 -34 -41 -6 13 14 -32 -29 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 -1 -2 0 -1 -1 0 2 2 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 878 898 903 903 905 905 948 1017 1082 1152 1223 1263 1278 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.0 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.6 15.7 15.8 16.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.8 112.1 112.4 112.7 113.1 113.6 114.5 115.7 116.7 117.8 118.9 119.7 120.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 4 3 4 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 12 10 9 7 5 5 1 0 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 723 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 13. 14. 15. 14. 13. 12. 12. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. -10. -10. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -9. -14. -19. -23. -26. -27. -30. -34. -35. -34. -33. -34. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 14.9 111.8 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022021 BLANCA 06/02/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.56 3.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.37 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.33 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 186.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.70 -3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.07 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.3 56.6 to 0.0 0.80 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.10 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 12.9% 11.6% 10.0% 0.0% 9.1% 6.5% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 1.6% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 4.8% 4.2% 3.4% 0.0% 3.0% 2.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022021 BLANCA 06/02/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##