* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLANCA EP022021 06/02/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 37 34 31 28 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 37 34 31 28 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 37 34 31 28 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 23 20 17 18 23 29 21 21 24 29 31 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 9 13 10 4 3 5 9 4 -2 2 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 252 260 256 254 260 266 278 269 263 265 276 266 261 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.5 27.3 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.1 25.9 25.9 25.2 25.1 24.9 24.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 137 134 133 131 129 122 121 121 112 111 109 102 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -52.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -53.6 -54.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 2 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 61 60 58 57 50 47 46 46 46 45 48 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 14 13 13 13 12 12 10 9 7 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -16 -8 -3 4 2 3 -11 -9 -14 -26 -25 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 51 18 11 -3 2 -32 -21 -30 -11 34 -14 -28 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 -2 0 1 4 0 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 859 856 856 870 885 929 999 1073 1182 1232 1236 1257 1329 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.6 15.7 15.7 15.7 15.7 15.7 15.6 15.6 15.8 16.1 16.4 16.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.0 112.5 112.9 113.2 113.6 114.5 115.7 116.7 118.2 119.2 119.7 120.4 121.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 3 3 4 5 5 6 6 4 3 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 7 6 5 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 742 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 12. 13. 12. 10. 8. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -5. -8. -11. -14. -16. -19. -21. -21. -21. -22. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -8. -9. -8. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -9. -12. -18. -26. -31. -35. -38. -44. -47. -51. -51. -50. -51. -53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 15.4 112.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022021 BLANCA 06/02/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.50 1.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.25 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 183.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.70 -1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.03 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.2 56.6 to 0.0 0.73 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.04 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 4.9% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.7% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022021 BLANCA 06/02/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##