* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLANCA EP022021 06/02/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 26 22 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 26 22 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 26 22 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 18 18 18 21 23 23 21 21 25 24 24 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 13 11 8 5 5 7 9 1 0 8 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 259 249 241 259 275 277 273 273 271 270 269 267 266 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 27.3 27.3 27.0 26.9 26.5 26.0 26.0 25.3 25.3 25.2 25.0 25.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 133 134 132 131 127 122 122 114 114 112 110 112 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -52.9 -53.4 -53.4 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 60 58 56 54 48 47 46 47 47 48 50 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 13 13 14 13 12 11 10 8 6 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -8 -2 0 2 -1 -8 -14 -9 -16 -28 -22 -28 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 19 12 15 0 -30 -22 -23 -38 13 -5 -30 -50 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 0 0 -3 0 0 4 2 2 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 866 870 874 902 933 1023 1099 1206 1284 1346 1406 1464 1531 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.6 15.6 15.6 15.5 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.2 15.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.6 112.9 113.1 113.7 114.2 115.5 116.7 118.2 119.3 120.3 121.2 121.9 122.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 2 4 5 6 6 7 6 5 5 4 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 6 6 4 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 756 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 19. 20. 19. 18. 17. 16. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -2. -6. -9. -12. -15. -17. -17. -17. -17. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. -10. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -11. -13. -19. -25. -32. -35. -39. -44. -46. -48. -47. -45. -45. -46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.5 112.6 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022021 BLANCA 06/02/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.58 1.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.19 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.02 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 144.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.74 -1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.03 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 37.5 56.6 to 0.0 0.34 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.03 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.3% 3.3% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 1.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022021 BLANCA 06/02/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##