* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLANCA EP022021 06/03/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 24 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 27 24 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 27 24 22 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 18 20 22 23 25 23 21 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 10 7 8 8 6 10 6 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 250 233 243 256 263 280 278 280 275 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.2 27.1 26.9 26.9 26.2 26.3 25.4 25.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 133 132 130 131 124 125 116 115 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -52.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.8 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 58 56 54 51 49 48 47 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 12 12 12 10 10 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -11 0 6 6 0 -1 -10 -3 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 15 18 21 -34 -36 -33 -33 -31 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -2 -2 -1 0 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 891 910 930 958 988 1084 1194 1290 1373 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.4 15.3 15.3 15.2 15.1 15.0 15.1 15.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.0 113.4 113.7 114.2 114.7 116.2 117.7 119.1 120.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 4 5 6 7 7 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 5 5 5 6 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 767 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 16. 19. 20. 21. 20. 20. 19. 19. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -6. -10. -13. -15. -16. -16. -16. -16. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 3. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. -12. -11. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -9. -12. -19. -27. -34. -38. -40. -41. -42. -41. -41. -39. -39. -40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.4 113.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022021 BLANCA 06/03/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.57 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.15 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 147.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.74 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.03 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 31.6 56.6 to 0.0 0.44 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.12 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022021 BLANCA 06/03/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##