* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLANCA EP022021 06/03/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 25 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 27 25 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 29 26 24 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 22 24 27 28 23 20 16 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 7 8 7 4 6 8 4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 246 250 261 270 277 277 286 278 267 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.5 26.1 26.0 25.2 25.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 131 130 130 127 123 122 114 113 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -52.5 -52.4 -52.9 -53.5 -53.5 -53.8 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 3 3 3 3 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 56 53 51 49 47 47 44 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 11 10 9 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 7 5 -7 -8 -9 -16 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 8 12 -45 -46 -44 -31 -33 -25 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 -2 -3 1 -2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 882 909 938 969 1002 1108 1199 1284 1362 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.6 15.5 15.4 15.4 15.4 15.2 15.3 15.5 15.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.3 113.7 114.1 114.7 115.3 116.7 118.1 119.6 120.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 5 6 6 7 7 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 4 4 5 4 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 734 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 16. 18. 20. 20. 19. 18. 18. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -3. -7. -10. -13. -15. -15. -16. -15. -15. -16. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -10. -10. -11. -9. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -9. -12. -20. -27. -34. -39. -41. -42. -42. -41. -40. -38. -37. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.6 113.3 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022021 BLANCA 06/03/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.55 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -23.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.05 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.36 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 159.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.73 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.02 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 46.2 56.6 to 0.0 0.18 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.08 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022021 BLANCA 06/03/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##