* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLANCA EP022021 06/03/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 24 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 27 24 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 29 26 24 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 26 29 29 26 18 16 19 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 8 5 5 5 8 7 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 248 257 265 275 277 278 274 270 272 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 26.8 26.7 26.2 25.8 26.2 25.4 25.1 24.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 130 129 124 120 124 116 112 102 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.5 -52.3 -52.7 -53.3 -53.3 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 52 49 46 47 44 46 44 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 11 11 10 9 8 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 2 2 -8 -6 -3 -16 -3 -5 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -2 -30 -49 -56 -59 -29 -52 -22 -61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -2 -3 -1 0 0 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 889 921 955 992 1033 1137 1220 1278 1360 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.7 15.7 15.6 15.6 15.6 15.6 15.8 16.0 16.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.7 114.3 114.8 115.5 116.1 117.6 119.0 120.2 121.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 6 6 6 7 6 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 739 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 9. 12. 15. 17. 18. 18. 17. 16. 15. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -3. -7. -11. -14. -16. -17. -17. -17. -17. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. -7. -5. -1. 1. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -10. -13. -20. -27. -34. -41. -43. -44. -44. -44. -42. -40. -39. -40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.7 113.7 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022021 BLANCA 06/03/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.52 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -39.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.7 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.20 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 179.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.70 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 52.7 56.6 to 0.0 0.07 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022021 BLANCA 06/03/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##