* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLANCA EP022021 06/04/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 22 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 22 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 22 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 32 27 24 21 19 9 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 4 4 3 4 1 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 263 267 276 283 298 268 256 257 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.2 25.5 25.4 25.6 25.4 25.0 24.3 23.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 124 117 116 119 116 112 104 98 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.7 -53.8 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 45 43 41 41 40 39 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 9 8 8 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -1 -6 -6 -3 9 8 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -41 -44 -52 -27 -1 -2 -45 -55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 0 1 0 0 2 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 922 971 1023 1082 1138 1223 1315 1414 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.2 16.2 16.3 16.3 16.4 16.4 16.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.2 116.0 116.7 117.6 118.4 119.9 121.2 122.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 719 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 2.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 12. 15. 18. 19. 19. 17. 15. 14. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -3. -7. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -1. 1. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -8. -10. -17. -25. -35. -41. -44. -46. -48. -48. -49. -48. -49. -51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.2 115.2 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022021 BLANCA 06/04/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.49 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -33.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.5 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.98 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 185.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.70 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 29.4 56.6 to 0.0 0.48 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.32 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022021 BLANCA 06/04/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##