* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THREE EP032021 06/12/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 44 47 52 57 59 57 53 50 45 39 33 29 27 25 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 44 47 52 57 59 57 53 50 45 39 33 29 27 25 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 38 40 43 46 47 46 42 38 32 27 23 19 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 11 10 6 7 6 4 3 8 7 11 7 6 11 15 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -2 3 6 6 3 5 3 1 1 6 2 0 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 41 57 58 49 56 98 144 192 249 206 187 168 145 138 136 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.0 26.0 25.4 24.9 24.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 139 140 141 140 139 138 138 138 139 132 122 114 107 106 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.6 -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -53.5 -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 3 2 1 1 0 1 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 59 57 56 55 52 45 40 42 48 51 51 50 43 35 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 15 16 16 16 15 15 16 15 14 12 8 6 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -1 7 10 4 0 14 36 68 92 97 82 57 24 11 -15 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 62 83 116 92 51 25 -43 -53 -19 11 1 -18 -16 -23 -15 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -3 -2 -2 -3 0 2 0 -2 -3 -3 -2 0 0 -1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1853 1883 1914 1968 2023 2132 2122 2098 2072 2006 1901 1785 1672 1637 1662 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 123.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 4 5 6 5 3 2 2 2 5 7 6 4 1 1 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 10 10 10 9 11 12 11 10 9 3 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 26. 25. 24. 23. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 6. 3. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 0. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 17. 22. 27. 29. 27. 23. 20. 15. 9. 3. -1. -3. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.8 123.3 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032021 THREE 06/12/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.64 4.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.59 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.59 4.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 3.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 170.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.71 -3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.07 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 44.2 56.6 to 0.0 0.22 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.57 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.5% 23.4% 17.9% 16.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 6.5% 10.7% 1.2% 1.8% 0.1% 0.0% 3.3% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.9% 10.2% 9.6% 5.8% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% DTOPS: 3.0% 17.0% 10.0% 7.0% 4.0% 4.0% 6.0% 7.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032021 THREE 06/12/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##