* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THREE EP032021 06/13/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 42 44 46 46 46 45 43 42 41 36 29 23 18 16 N/A V (KT) LAND 35 39 42 44 46 46 46 45 43 42 41 36 29 23 18 16 N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 40 41 42 41 38 34 30 26 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 7 5 5 7 7 8 10 12 13 15 16 18 15 18 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 6 10 10 4 3 4 1 2 3 2 2 0 3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 43 43 70 86 91 191 218 229 233 174 141 168 164 165 173 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.3 26.9 25.8 24.8 23.6 22.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 139 138 138 138 138 136 136 135 131 120 110 97 88 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 -53.6 -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -52.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 57 56 55 53 50 46 42 44 47 49 47 43 37 28 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 15 14 14 13 13 14 14 14 14 11 8 5 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 4 0 -1 3 15 40 66 88 84 72 54 34 21 14 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 77 100 73 61 50 -15 -55 -32 19 7 -6 9 -30 -18 -17 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -2 -4 -2 3 1 0 0 0 -2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1912 1959 2007 2048 2090 2145 2207 2207 2198 2127 2011 1891 1776 1638 1527 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.9 11.9 11.8 11.7 11.5 11.2 10.8 10.9 11.2 12.0 13.1 14.4 15.9 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 124.3 124.9 125.5 125.9 126.3 126.7 127.1 127.2 127.4 127.3 126.9 126.6 126.5 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 5 4 3 3 2 1 3 5 6 7 7 7 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 9 9 9 10 11 12 12 10 8 6 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 19. 21. 21. 20. 19. 16. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. -0. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -4. -8. -10. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 9. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. 7. 6. 1. -6. -12. -17. -19. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 11.9 124.3 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032021 THREE 06/13/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.59 4.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.55 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 19.6 to 1.3 0.70 4.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 3.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 206.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.67 -3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.06 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 42.8 56.6 to 0.0 0.24 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.55 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.7% 26.7% 20.0% 18.3% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.8% 14.4% 24.8% 3.1% 2.0% 0.1% 0.0% 1.9% Bayesian: 1.9% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.1% 14.1% 15.1% 7.2% 4.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% DTOPS: 4.0% 11.0% 6.0% 4.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032021 THREE 06/13/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##