* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CARLOS EP032021 06/13/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 50 50 50 49 44 39 36 33 31 28 26 24 22 22 22 V (KT) LAND 45 49 50 50 50 49 44 39 36 33 31 28 26 24 22 22 22 V (KT) LGEM 45 48 50 50 50 49 45 39 33 28 24 20 18 15 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 5 7 9 10 11 13 16 12 12 14 13 6 10 14 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 8 7 5 1 1 3 2 4 4 3 2 4 3 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 34 44 114 149 202 228 243 250 205 181 192 172 174 154 157 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.2 26.8 25.8 25.1 24.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 141 142 141 140 139 139 139 137 133 130 119 112 105 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.7 -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 55 53 50 49 47 42 47 53 55 54 54 49 43 35 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 16 14 13 15 14 15 14 13 12 10 7 5 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 4 2 6 12 38 57 76 67 53 31 14 -3 -7 -2 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 74 69 68 44 5 -50 -18 25 -2 -17 -13 -15 -7 -9 3 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -1 0 1 0 -2 -2 -2 -1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2013 2059 2105 2151 2198 2261 2308 2315 2268 2214 2162 2082 1960 1878 1805 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.9 11.8 11.6 11.4 11.1 10.6 10.3 10.5 11.1 11.8 12.6 13.6 14.8 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 125.7 126.2 126.6 127.0 127.3 127.6 127.9 128.2 128.2 128.2 128.3 128.2 127.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 4 3 2 2 2 3 4 4 6 6 5 4 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 11 12 13 13 14 13 12 11 9 8 6 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 15. 14. 13. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -13. -14. -14. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. -1. -6. -9. -12. -14. -17. -19. -21. -22. -23. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 11.9 125.7 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032021 CARLOS 06/13/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.51 4.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.44 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 19.6 to 1.3 0.64 4.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 3.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 300.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.57 -3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.09 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 45.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.67 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 2.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.7% 35.2% 22.0% 20.6% 11.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.3% 8.3% 16.6% 1.9% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 2.2% Bayesian: 2.6% 1.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.5% 15.1% 13.1% 7.6% 4.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% DTOPS: 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 5.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032021 CARLOS 06/13/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##