* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CARLOS EP032021 06/13/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 46 44 44 39 32 27 24 22 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 46 46 44 44 39 32 27 24 22 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 46 46 45 44 41 35 30 24 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 5 6 10 10 10 24 15 16 15 15 14 11 12 15 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 11 8 3 2 8 -1 4 3 5 5 4 5 3 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 53 118 161 219 240 231 252 226 208 202 185 189 195 186 170 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.1 24.8 24.2 24.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 141 140 140 140 137 137 136 133 132 123 109 101 99 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.5 -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 53 51 51 49 43 48 51 51 53 54 51 44 37 33 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 14 13 15 14 13 13 13 12 10 7 5 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 0 4 8 23 44 68 70 59 39 24 14 2 7 9 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 44 23 13 -8 -25 -51 -5 2 -18 -18 0 -25 1 5 -5 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -1 0 0 -1 -1 -3 -3 -3 -1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2066 2120 2174 2217 2260 2315 2385 2393 2365 2300 2214 2108 1996 1927 1881 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.8 11.6 11.4 11.2 10.9 10.6 10.3 10.6 11.4 12.3 13.3 14.5 15.9 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 126.3 126.8 127.3 127.6 127.9 128.3 128.9 129.3 129.7 129.7 129.6 129.5 129.5 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 4 3 3 2 3 5 4 6 6 6 3 2 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 12 13 12 12 11 9 7 5 6 5 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. 13. 11. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -7. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11. -10. -8. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -11. -14. -16. -16. -15. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. -1. -1. -6. -13. -18. -21. -23. -26. -29. -31. -33. -33. -32. -33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 11.8 126.3 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032021 CARLOS 06/13/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.51 3.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.22 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.66 4.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 3.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 312.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.55 -3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.09 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 30.8 56.6 to 0.0 0.46 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.47 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.3% 22.8% 19.1% 17.6% 10.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 5.8% 8.4% 0.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.2% 9.7% 9.2% 6.2% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032021 CARLOS 06/13/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##