* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CARLOS EP032021 06/14/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 36 34 32 26 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 39 36 34 32 26 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 38 36 34 33 28 23 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 7 11 13 14 25 20 17 17 16 13 15 9 11 6 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 7 0 0 5 -1 2 5 3 7 6 5 3 1 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 109 193 225 245 238 244 253 210 236 255 273 283 300 333 7 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.2 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.7 26.6 26.4 26.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 141 140 139 136 133 132 130 130 129 127 126 123 124 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -53.7 -53.8 -53.3 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 51 51 49 48 45 47 49 48 49 48 45 43 40 35 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 13 12 12 13 12 12 11 9 7 6 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 0 3 15 26 45 64 58 40 16 -8 -22 -33 -39 -25 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 12 5 -17 -40 -58 -30 11 -15 -16 -34 -33 -29 -26 -28 -31 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 1 2 1 1 0 -1 -1 -1 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2112 2162 2213 2268 2323 2409 2481 2546 2564 2583 2588 2557 2519 2486 2447 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.7 11.5 11.3 11.1 10.9 10.6 10.5 10.4 10.5 10.7 11.0 11.3 11.7 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 126.8 127.3 127.7 128.2 128.7 129.5 130.3 131.0 131.3 131.7 132.1 132.5 132.7 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 12 12 11 9 6 4 4 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 14. 15. 16. 17. 16. 16. 15. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. -2. -1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -13. -14. -16. -17. -17. -17. -14. -12. -11. -10. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -15. -15. -14. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -6. -8. -14. -20. -24. -27. -31. -33. -34. -33. -30. -25. -24. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 11.7 126.8 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032021 CARLOS 06/14/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.55 3.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -19.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.07 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.56 3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 279.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.59 -2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.08 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.44 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 13.8% 13.4% 12.0% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 2.1% 2.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 5.3% 5.2% 4.0% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032021 CARLOS 06/14/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##