* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CARLOS EP032021 06/14/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 31 28 25 22 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 31 28 25 22 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 31 28 25 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 11 13 15 19 26 13 18 16 21 23 25 34 30 21 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 0 0 3 3 0 12 6 10 7 6 5 -3 0 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 181 225 244 242 246 256 240 226 270 294 298 310 328 325 329 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.3 27.3 27.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 140 139 138 134 135 135 132 130 130 132 135 134 131 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -53.0 -53.0 -53.6 -53.9 -53.5 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -53.6 -53.8 -54.1 -54.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 51 48 48 44 45 45 42 40 40 41 37 38 36 36 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 12 12 11 12 11 9 8 7 6 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 2 13 23 30 52 60 53 37 18 0 -22 -31 -35 -31 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 4 -21 -44 -65 -77 -6 9 -9 -16 -34 -47 -51 -50 -18 -21 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 2 2 1 0 -3 -2 -1 0 -1 -1 -1 0 1 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2166 2225 2284 2339 2394 2546 2653 2559 2432 2358 2304 2220 2098 1997 1930 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.3 11.1 10.9 10.7 10.3 10.1 10.2 10.4 10.7 11.2 11.5 11.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 127.3 127.9 128.4 128.9 129.4 130.9 132.1 133.0 134.2 134.8 135.1 135.8 137.1 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 5 7 7 5 5 5 3 3 5 5 4 3 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 11 10 8 6 4 6 8 8 5 4 6 20 16 11 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 17. 19. 20. 21. 21. 21. 21. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -12. -15. -17. -17. -18. -17. -16. -14. -12. -10. -9. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -4. -1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -10. -13. -20. -27. -32. -35. -37. -40. -42. -43. -42. -38. -36. -34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 11.5 127.3 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032021 CARLOS 06/14/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.59 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -40.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.35 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 264.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.61 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.06 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.33 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032021 CARLOS 06/14/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##