* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO AL022021 06/14/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 39 42 46 47 47 43 37 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 35 39 42 46 47 45 42 36 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 34 37 39 40 38 35 34 34 30 27 26 28 31 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 28 34 39 40 54 67 86 80 53 28 38 39 41 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 2 -4 -1 0 -5 -18 -10 -2 8 17 17 16 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 226 224 233 240 251 255 271 287 301 300 272 251 236 235 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.4 25.8 25.6 25.2 24.0 9.5 5.2 9.8 9.2 11.1 10.7 9.6 5.5 6.5 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 120 115 114 112 104 71 70 72 71 70 69 68 66 65 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 106 102 104 103 96 70 69 70 70 68 67 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.3 -55.3 -55.2 -55.4 -55.6 -56.0 -56.5 -55.4 -53.7 -50.0 -47.2 -46.4 -46.1 -45.7 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.6 -0.2 -0.4 -1.1 -1.0 -1.4 -1.2 -0.9 -1.0 0.0 1.0 1.6 0.9 0.8 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 56 58 62 63 66 72 72 76 61 59 62 63 67 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 9 11 11 11 13 17 17 14 12 12 11 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 49 38 41 37 48 56 39 70 60 29 60 66 50 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 16 30 58 39 45 75 61 52 9 7 8 -20 -56 -187 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 14 22 21 43 106 99 85 114 63 15 33 20 31 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 167 256 441 439 412 232 112 839 1396 751 482 449 668 579 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.5 35.5 36.5 38.0 39.8 44.0 48.2 51.2 52.9 54.5 57.3 61.3 65.0 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 74.5 72.9 70.7 68.1 65.3 58.8 51.5 42.0 31.0 21.5 15.0 10.8 7.6 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 18 23 27 30 33 33 35 33 26 23 21 18 15 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 18 CX,CY: 13/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 709 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 4. 5. 7. 7. -0. -15. -32. -44. -53. -61. -70. -83. -92. -95. -97. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. -0. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 9. 8. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. 2. 6. 7. 2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 6. 7. 4. 3. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 12. 16. 17. 17. 13. 7. -7. -22. -38. -50. -64. -72. -75. -77. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 34.5 74.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022021 TWO 06/14/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 152.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.78 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.59 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.37 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.31 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.85 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.4% 2.7% 1.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 3.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 8.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022021 TWO 06/14/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022021 TWO 06/14/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 35 39 42 46 47 45 42 36 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 33 36 40 41 39 36 30 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 33 34 32 29 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 25 23 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT