* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CARLOS EP032021 06/14/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 30 27 24 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 32 30 27 24 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 32 30 27 25 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 15 16 20 26 20 15 18 20 23 28 35 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 5 4 -1 6 10 8 9 7 5 -3 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 228 245 244 249 251 259 231 242 280 289 299 317 324 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.2 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.2 26.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 139 139 138 138 138 136 134 130 130 131 134 129 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -53.3 -53.7 -53.9 -53.5 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.7 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 49 46 44 45 46 47 44 42 42 42 41 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 12 12 12 11 10 8 7 6 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 2 11 20 30 42 56 57 44 21 3 -19 -28 -37 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -22 -42 -64 -65 -30 31 2 -9 -45 -37 -44 -33 -28 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 2 0 0 -1 -2 -1 0 -1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2252 2308 2363 2427 2490 2620 2550 2432 2314 2226 2162 2075 1952 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.3 11.1 10.9 10.6 10.3 10.2 10.4 10.8 11.0 11.1 11.3 11.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 128.3 128.9 129.4 130.0 130.5 131.8 133.1 134.2 135.2 136.0 136.6 137.4 138.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 8 8 6 6 6 9 8 6 10 16 20 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 685 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 17. 19. 20. 21. 21. 21. 21. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. -0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -14. -13. -12. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -13. -16. -18. -18. -19. -18. -16. -15. -13. -12. -11. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -4. -1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -8. -11. -17. -24. -29. -33. -35. -39. -42. -44. -42. -38. -36. -36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 11.4 128.3 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032021 CARLOS 06/14/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.58 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -44.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.12 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 272.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.60 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.05 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 24.9 56.6 to 0.0 0.56 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.33 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032021 CARLOS 06/14/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##