* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CARLOS EP032021 06/14/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 23 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 27 23 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 27 25 22 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 20 24 29 26 16 17 19 21 25 25 30 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 6 4 -3 1 13 9 9 10 5 4 -5 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 244 245 249 253 259 252 252 285 298 302 304 310 311 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.2 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 139 137 138 137 137 134 133 133 134 132 131 127 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.9 -53.6 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -54.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 45 44 44 45 47 44 42 38 39 39 39 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 12 11 10 9 8 6 5 4 3 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 15 27 37 47 53 46 35 17 -2 -20 -30 -34 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -53 -87 -64 -30 6 28 -21 -19 -34 -51 -36 -44 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 1 0 -1 -3 -2 0 -1 0 1 0 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2387 2451 2516 2581 2628 2506 2389 2283 2167 2090 2022 1935 1821 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.0 10.9 10.7 10.6 10.4 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.3 10.5 10.7 10.9 11.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 129.6 130.3 130.9 131.5 132.2 133.6 134.8 135.9 137.0 137.7 138.3 139.1 140.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 7 7 6 6 5 5 3 4 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 6 5 5 6 12 13 17 23 22 19 13 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 709 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 22. 24. 25. 25. 25. 25. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -13. -12. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -14. -16. -17. -17. -18. -17. -16. -15. -13. -12. -10. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -9. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -10. -10. -11. -10. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -9. -12. -19. -27. -31. -33. -35. -37. -39. -39. -36. -32. -31. -31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.0 129.6 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032021 CARLOS 06/14/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.62 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -45.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.1 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 235.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.64 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.03 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 37.4 56.6 to 0.0 0.34 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.30 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032021 CARLOS 06/14/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##