* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CARLOS EP032021 06/15/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 26 23 20 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 26 23 20 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 27 24 22 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 23 29 27 19 14 14 18 23 24 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 -1 1 9 10 9 10 8 6 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 242 245 251 260 262 260 276 294 302 307 311 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.0 27.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 138 138 138 138 137 135 135 134 133 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 -54.2 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 43 44 44 45 46 43 41 40 40 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 6 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 15 27 36 44 47 46 35 21 3 -7 -20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -95 -68 -30 -4 35 5 0 -34 -46 -50 -63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 0 -2 -3 -3 0 0 -1 0 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2482 2559 2636 2604 2540 2415 2290 2187 2085 1959 1830 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.4 10.2 10.0 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 10.1 10.2 10.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 130.4 131.2 131.9 132.7 133.4 134.7 136.0 137.1 138.0 139.3 140.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 6 7 5 5 6 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 6 7 10 17 20 21 22 21 15 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 737 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 15. 19. 22. 24. 25. 26. 26. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -12. -12. -12. -10. -9. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -13. -15. -16. -16. -16. -16. -16. -15. -13. -12. -11. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -6. -4. -1. 1. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. -12. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -10. -12. -19. -26. -31. -33. -36. -39. -39. -37. -35. -31. -29. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.6 130.4 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032021 CARLOS 06/15/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.62 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -32.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.00 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.84 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 235.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.64 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.06 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 30.8 56.6 to 0.0 0.46 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.40 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032021 CARLOS 06/15/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##