* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BILL AL022021 06/15/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 48 46 45 44 40 33 25 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 47 48 46 45 44 40 33 25 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 47 47 44 41 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 34 34 37 50 56 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 3 11 1 -2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 240 244 240 256 271 264 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.4 23.2 20.4 12.6 8.2 6.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 123 99 86 72 69 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 112 91 80 70 68 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.5 -55.8 -55.8 -56.1 -56.3 -56.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -1.4 -0.9 -1.2 -1.4 -1.2 -1.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 64 66 69 73 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 13 11 11 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 37 36 50 47 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 47 67 81 71 61 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 17 41 76 95 123 113 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 471 447 351 261 217 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.6 39.3 41.0 43.0 44.9 48.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 68.5 65.7 62.9 60.3 57.6 52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 26 28 27 27 26 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 24 CX,CY: 20/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -10. -13. -15. -16. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. -1. -9. -19. -28. -36. -44. -51. -58. -69. -75. -78. -81. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 12. 12. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 13. 14. 17. 20. 22. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 8. 9. 8. 6. 4. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -12. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 1. 0. -1. -5. -12. -20. -30. -39. -50. -59. -67. -71. -73. -72. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 37.6 68.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022021 BILL 06/15/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 42.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.18 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 192.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.74 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.75 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.09 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.44 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 71.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.29 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022021 BILL 06/15/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022021 BILL 06/15/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 47 48 46 45 44 40 33 25 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 45 43 42 41 37 30 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 39 38 37 33 26 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 34 33 29 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT