* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CARLOS EP032021 06/15/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 25 22 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 28 25 22 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 29 27 24 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 29 27 18 17 17 23 21 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 -1 1 7 10 8 4 11 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 244 249 260 260 255 282 309 311 308 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 138 138 139 139 137 135 134 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.7 -54.0 -54.2 -54.2 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 -0.1 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 43 44 45 45 44 42 39 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 32 43 47 49 42 31 12 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -76 -36 -11 44 23 0 -8 -28 -52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 -2 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2586 2658 2589 2526 2464 2330 2208 2075 1935 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.0 9.8 9.7 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.8 10.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 131.3 132.1 132.9 133.6 134.3 135.7 137.0 138.3 139.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 8 14 20 23 22 22 20 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 709 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 15. 19. 22. 24. 26. 26. 27. 27. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11. -9. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. -16. -15. -14. -13. -11. -10. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. -13. -13. -12. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -8. -11. -17. -23. -27. -30. -31. -31. -31. -29. -28. -24. -23. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.2 131.3 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032021 CARLOS 06/15/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.63 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.11 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 241.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.63 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.11 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 30.2 56.6 to 0.0 0.47 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.36 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032021 CARLOS 06/15/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##