* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CARLOS EP032021 06/15/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 25 22 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 28 25 22 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 29 27 24 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 31 29 21 20 19 21 21 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 6 9 8 7 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 252 264 270 274 277 292 302 303 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 137 135 134 134 136 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.9 -54.1 -54.3 -53.9 -53.7 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 44 45 44 44 42 41 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 8 8 8 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 43 45 47 44 34 22 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -43 -1 30 12 7 7 -26 -27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2643 2572 2502 2439 2376 2258 2125 1965 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.1 10.0 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.7 9.9 10.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 132.2 133.0 133.8 134.5 135.1 136.4 137.7 139.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 6 6 6 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 10 19 20 20 21 22 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 725 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 22. 24. 25. 25. 26. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -12. -11. -11. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. -16. -15. -14. -13. -11. -10. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -8. -11. -17. -23. -28. -29. -29. -28. -28. -27. -25. -22. -21. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.1 132.2 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032021 CARLOS 06/15/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.60 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.32 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 236.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.64 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.12 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 29.5 56.6 to 0.0 0.48 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.29 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032021 CARLOS 06/15/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##