* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CARLOS EP032021 06/16/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 25 22 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 28 25 22 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 29 27 24 22 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 24 22 22 23 20 18 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 4 6 5 10 12 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 273 282 290 296 299 308 297 305 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 137 137 135 135 135 134 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 45 46 45 46 44 45 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 46 43 38 32 22 6 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 13 6 11 0 -5 -38 -19 -74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2497 2443 2389 2330 2272 2139 2035 1875 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 9.7 9.6 9.4 9.4 9.3 9.5 9.7 10.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 133.9 134.5 135.2 135.9 136.5 137.8 138.8 140.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 23 23 21 21 21 18 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 742 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 22. 24. 25. 25. 26. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -10. -9. -9. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -10. -12. -12. -13. -12. -10. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -8. -10. -16. -22. -27. -28. -28. -28. -28. -26. -25. -21. -20. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 9.7 133.9 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032021 CARLOS 06/16/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.60 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.20 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.9 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 224.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.65 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.18 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 39.4 56.6 to 0.0 0.30 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.33 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032021 CARLOS 06/16/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##