* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CARLOS EP032021 06/16/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 26 23 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 28 26 23 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 29 27 25 23 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 23 21 22 23 16 13 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 7 7 6 13 10 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 283 284 289 299 308 310 290 305 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 136 135 135 135 136 135 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -53.9 -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 48 47 48 47 43 46 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 7 6 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 44 41 35 30 16 6 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 17 11 13 8 -26 -11 -48 -70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 -1 -2 0 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2442 2383 2325 2276 2228 2100 1954 1815 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 9.3 9.3 9.2 9.2 9.1 9.4 9.7 9.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 134.7 135.4 136.0 136.5 137.1 138.3 139.7 141.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 5 5 6 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 23 21 20 20 20 14 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 735 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 22. 24. 25. 25. 26. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -6. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -11. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -7. -10. -15. -20. -24. -24. -24. -23. -22. -20. -19. -16. -15. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 9.3 134.7 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032021 CARLOS 06/16/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.60 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.20 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.5 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 211.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.67 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.18 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 44.2 56.6 to 0.0 0.22 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.46 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 2.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032021 CARLOS 06/16/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##