* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CARLOS EP032021 06/16/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 22 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 22 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 22 20 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 18 20 22 17 9 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 5 4 7 11 5 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 285 288 300 313 317 302 298 317 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 136 135 135 135 136 136 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 -53.9 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 5 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 47 46 47 45 46 48 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 7 6 6 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 47 37 28 20 10 0 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 15 25 15 -13 -29 -22 -57 -45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 -2 -1 0 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2448 2395 2342 2284 2226 2089 1950 1818 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 8.7 8.7 8.6 8.7 8.7 9.0 9.1 9.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 135.0 135.6 136.2 136.8 137.4 138.7 140.2 141.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 20 19 19 20 20 14 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):230/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 694 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 25. 27. 29. 29. 30. 31. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -5. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. -13. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -9. -11. -16. -20. -24. -23. -22. -21. -21. -18. -17. -13. -11. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 8.7 135.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032021 CARLOS 06/16/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.65 2.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.18 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.1 19.6 to 1.3 0.03 0.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 174.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.71 -1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.17 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 38.7 56.6 to 0.0 0.32 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.38 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 9.2% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.1% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032021 CARLOS 06/16/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##