* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THREE AL032021 06/18/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 28 29 32 35 33 32 32 32 33 34 34 34 35 38 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 28 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 24 24 21 24 26 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 25 18 20 25 16 18 12 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 3 1 1 -1 7 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 243 258 265 252 255 309 261 294 292 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.9 29.0 29.4 28.5 27.6 27.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 142 144 151 153 161 146 133 127 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 126 127 129 136 138 145 130 115 110 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -53.1 -52.9 -52.7 -53.4 -53.3 -54.4 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.6 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 7 8 5 8 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 63 62 59 56 53 55 57 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 12 12 12 13 13 11 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 27 14 5 -10 -91 -76 -86 -90 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 78 38 41 45 60 4 49 -3 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 0 10 9 11 20 35 17 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 305 374 453 368 249 -35 -167 -449 -243 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.1 24.0 24.8 26.0 27.2 29.7 32.2 34.3 34.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 92.2 92.1 91.9 92.0 92.1 90.5 87.6 85.4 81.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 12 13 16 16 14 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 24 28 31 23 17 11 3 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 9 CX,CY: 2/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 498 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 15. 20. 24. 27. 30. 33. 35. 36. 36. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -12. -15. -17. -18. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 8. 7. 7. 7. 9. 9. 9. 9. 10. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 23.1 92.2 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032021 THREE 06/18/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.25 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.16 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 95.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.43 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.66 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.38 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 11.0% 7.4% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% 6.5% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 1.9% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 4.3% 2.8% 2.3% 0.0% 0.1% 2.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032021 THREE 06/18/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032021 THREE 06/18/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 27 28 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 25 24 26 27 28 27 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 22 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT