* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THREE AL032021 06/18/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 34 36 37 38 39 39 40 40 40 41 42 43 46 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 32 31 27 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 19 19 22 25 16 22 17 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 1 0 3 1 1 8 9 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 256 262 256 254 276 248 285 280 311 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.7 29.0 29.1 30.1 28.6 28.3 27.1 25.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 147 152 155 173 147 143 127 112 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 129 130 136 139 156 130 125 110 97 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -54.7 -55.4 -55.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 7 8 6 8 5 8 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 60 58 55 50 53 52 56 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 1 -1 -33 -81 -48 -105 -69 -31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 46 38 38 62 22 36 28 34 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 1 11 11 12 19 5 28 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 408 423 330 184 42 -105 -317 -424 -346 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.5 25.4 26.3 27.6 28.9 31.3 33.4 35.4 36.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 91.5 91.6 91.8 91.5 91.2 89.3 86.8 83.9 80.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 11 13 14 15 15 15 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 32 30 22 16 18 3 3 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 11 CX,CY: 0/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 18. 21. 24. 27. 29. 30. 30. 31. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. 1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -12. -15. -17. -18. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. 11. 12. 13. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 24.5 91.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032021 THREE 06/18/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.31 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.16 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.74 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 139.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.80 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.41 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.68 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.33 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.90 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 12.3% 8.0% 7.0% 4.8% 8.0% 7.0% 7.0% Logistic: 1.1% 2.1% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 4.8% 3.1% 2.5% 1.6% 2.8% 2.4% 2.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032021 THREE 06/18/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032021 THREE 06/18/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 34 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 30 29 30 32 32 27 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 28 23 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT