* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THREE AL032021 06/18/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 37 39 40 38 33 35 35 34 35 34 35 34 35 36 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 32 35 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 34 33 28 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 20 23 25 20 26 15 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 5 2 -4 6 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 262 247 241 273 290 261 316 295 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.9 29.1 29.1 28.4 28.1 27.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 143 151 154 154 143 140 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 131 128 133 135 134 123 121 116 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.6 -53.5 -54.9 -54.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.5 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 8 5 5 8 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 54 49 48 49 53 59 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 13 13 13 9 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -13 -40 -91 -99 -79 -102 -81 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 29 56 63 20 -7 74 -16 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 14 8 18 19 24 21 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 360 230 109 -16 6 -131 -356 -403 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.9 27.1 28.3 29.3 30.3 31.9 33.6 35.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 91.1 91.3 91.4 90.8 90.2 88.3 86.3 83.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 11 12 14 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 15 12 13 5 3 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 12 CX,CY: 3/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 24. 26. 28. 30. 30. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. 0. -3. -6. -10. -12. -14. -18. -20. -20. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -4. -11. -12. -13. -15. -15. -16. -16. -16. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -3. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 9. 10. 8. 4. 5. 5. 4. 5. 4. 5. 4. 5. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 25.9 91.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032021 THREE 06/18/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 1.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.30 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.09 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.23 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 177.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.76 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.46 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.63 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.29 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 27.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.73 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 5.6% 4.5% 4.0% 2.4% 5.4% 5.6% 6.8% Logistic: 1.5% 1.7% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 2.4% 1.9% 1.4% 0.8% 1.9% 1.9% 2.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032021 THREE 06/18/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032021 THREE 06/18/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 32 35 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 30 29 32 29 32 25 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 12HR AGO 30 27 26 23 26 19 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 16 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT