* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOLORES EP042021 06/18/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 45 44 41 36 33 33 35 36 38 42 44 46 46 46 47 V (KT) LAND 40 43 45 44 41 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 40 43 45 44 42 32 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 15 13 16 17 13 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 5 7 11 5 7 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 86 89 101 128 133 177 231 245 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.9 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.5 27.8 26.1 25.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 163 164 165 164 161 144 125 119 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.8 -52.1 -52.3 -51.9 -51.9 -51.9 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 6 5 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 81 80 77 74 72 66 60 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 16 14 11 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 52 58 63 70 78 86 63 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 109 130 139 125 100 49 -11 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -6 -7 -6 -6 0 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 251 233 183 108 53 -52 -134 -238 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.9 16.4 17.4 18.3 21.1 23.9 25.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 102.1 102.7 103.2 103.6 104.1 104.7 105.3 105.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 10 12 14 12 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 27 26 25 22 18 5 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 473 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 10. 13. 16. 19. 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -5. -9. -15. -19. -21. -21. -21. -20. -18. -17. -15. -14. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 4. 1. -4. -7. -6. -5. -4. -2. 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 15.3 102.1 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042021 DOLORES 06/18/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.76 6.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 120.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.80 6.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.25 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 3.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 47.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -5.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.20 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 3.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.9% 38.8% 23.2% 22.1% 13.0% 20.5% 16.5% 12.5% Logistic: 8.1% 32.0% 16.7% 10.6% 1.3% 11.3% 1.8% 1.5% Bayesian: 1.6% 10.8% 7.3% 2.1% 0.0% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 7.5% 27.2% 15.7% 11.6% 4.8% 10.9% 6.2% 4.7% DTOPS: 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042021 DOLORES 06/18/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##