* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CLAUDETTE AL032021 06/19/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 41 40 40 38 36 38 41 37 31 30 29 28 28 29 31 V (KT) LAND 40 35 31 29 28 27 27 30 33 27 25 25 23 23 23 23 26 V (KT) LGEM 40 35 31 29 28 27 27 32 35 37 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 16 24 22 8 11 6 10 14 22 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 3 11 7 2 9 0 3 -1 7 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 277 247 257 292 297 297 218 290 225 218 208 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.3 28.1 28.4 27.9 27.6 25.4 22.3 17.2 12.1 9.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 141 139 144 137 134 112 93 77 72 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 126 120 120 125 120 118 100 85 73 70 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -54.4 -55.0 -54.7 -55.6 -55.0 -55.3 -54.9 -54.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.2 -0.3 0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 8 8 4 4 8 5 5 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 55 51 51 54 56 63 64 68 64 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 13 11 10 8 6 7 9 7 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -101 -64 -66 -89 -88 -98 -82 -34 7 16 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 37 83 89 17 -5 11 51 27 -15 35 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 28 28 -2 16 25 3 5 -17 -70 -100 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -21 -95 -140 -217 -324 -209 -97 207 191 -19 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.5 31.2 31.9 32.6 33.2 34.1 35.2 37.4 40.5 44.8 49.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 90.0 89.3 88.6 87.1 85.7 82.1 78.1 73.1 68.3 63.3 58.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 12 14 14 16 20 24 26 30 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 3 3 3 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 12 CX,CY: 5/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 687 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. -1. -3. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -12. -11. -14. -14. -15. -16. -16. -16. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -4. -2. 1. -3. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -11. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 30.5 90.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032021 CLAUDETTE 06/19/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.46 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.02 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.48 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 267.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.66 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.65 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.46 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.34 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 82.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.17 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.9% 9.5% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 3.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032021 CLAUDETTE 06/19/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032021 CLAUDETTE 06/19/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 35 31 29 28 27 27 30 33 27 25 25 23 23 23 23 26 18HR AGO 40 39 35 33 32 31 31 34 37 31 29 29 27 27 27 27 30 12HR AGO 40 37 36 34 33 32 32 35 38 32 30 30 28 28 28 28 31 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 29 28 28 31 34 28 26 26 24 24 24 24 27 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT