* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOLORES EP042021 06/19/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 60 59 57 52 47 44 43 42 43 45 46 47 47 47 48 V (KT) LAND 60 53 43 36 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 60 55 44 36 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 15 15 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 13 10 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 148 158 160 189 234 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 28.5 28.1 27.2 26.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 159 150 147 138 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.4 -51.3 -51.7 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 7 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 70 68 63 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 8 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 59 71 77 69 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 91 74 66 47 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -6 0 0 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 57 -20 -108 -66 -97 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.8 19.0 20.2 21.7 23.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 103.5 103.9 104.3 104.7 105.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 14 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 10 7 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 11 CX,CY: -4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 394 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -5. -7. -8. -8. -10. -13. -14. -15. -15. -14. -13. -11. -10. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 0. -1. -3. -8. -13. -16. -17. -18. -17. -15. -14. -13. -13. -13. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 17.8 103.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042021 DOLORES 06/19/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.41 3.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 5.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.47 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.43 3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 6.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 4.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 181.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.70 -4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.04 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.55 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 2.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 23.6% 35.7% 24.9% 23.2% 14.1% 19.3% 14.4% 999.0% Logistic: 20.4% 27.2% 18.4% 8.7% 0.9% 4.8% 0.2% 999.0% Bayesian: 4.5% 2.8% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 999.0% Consensus: 16.2% 21.9% 14.7% 10.8% 5.0% 8.1% 4.9% 999.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042021 DOLORES 06/19/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##