* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CLAUDETTE AL032021 06/19/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 34 34 33 32 36 36 37 33 25 23 22 21 21 21 24 V (KT) LAND 35 31 29 28 28 27 31 31 32 31 26 25 23 22 22 23 25 V (KT) LGEM 35 31 29 28 27 27 30 33 35 35 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 20 18 8 14 3 9 4 11 27 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 13 6 2 2 8 2 2 -1 4 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 235 256 290 269 282 277 238 90 243 219 205 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.4 28.1 27.8 27.5 26.0 22.7 21.7 14.2 10.8 4.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 143 139 136 132 117 94 90 73 72 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 121 122 120 118 116 104 86 83 70 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -54.3 -54.8 -54.8 -55.0 -55.4 -55.4 -55.0 -54.9 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.2 -0.4 0.0 -0.3 -0.4 0.0 -0.6 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 4 4 8 5 8 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 55 55 57 59 59 66 66 70 56 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 13 13 11 9 8 9 8 9 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -68 -79 -91 -82 -62 -91 -33 0 39 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 88 90 23 0 3 58 18 45 21 25 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 22 37 9 13 41 6 39 -6 3 -40 -117 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -130 -185 -281 -355 -245 -103 88 253 132 67 136 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.8 32.4 32.9 33.3 33.7 34.6 36.5 39.4 42.4 47.0 52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 88.6 87.5 86.4 84.8 83.1 79.3 74.9 69.7 64.9 59.6 53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 12 14 16 18 23 24 26 32 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 3 3 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 15 CX,CY: 9/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 710 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 5. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -11. -12. -15. -18. -19. -19. -19. -19. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 1. 1. 3. -2. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 31.8 88.6 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032021 CLAUDETTE 06/19/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.54 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.02 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 173.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.76 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.66 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.47 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.33 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 36.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.63 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.3% 9.7% 6.9% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 3.5% 2.4% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032021 CLAUDETTE 06/19/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032021 CLAUDETTE 06/19/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 31 29 28 28 27 31 31 32 31 26 25 23 22 22 23 25 18HR AGO 35 34 32 31 31 30 34 34 35 34 29 28 26 25 25 26 28 12HR AGO 35 32 31 30 30 29 33 33 34 33 28 27 25 24 24 25 27 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 24 28 28 29 28 23 22 20 19 19 20 22 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT