* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CLAUDETTE AL032021 06/20/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 22 21 20 19 22 24 28 29 28 20 19 18 18 17 17 20 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 27 30 32 36 37 31 28 27 26 26 25 25 28 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 26 27 27 31 33 35 31 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 19 11 13 9 2 7 8 11 29 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 8 0 3 9 3 4 0 2 6 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 257 290 276 302 311 158 269 214 218 214 219 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.1 27.8 27.5 27.6 26.5 24.1 20.9 11.9 8.2 6.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 139 136 132 134 123 103 87 71 69 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 125 121 118 116 119 110 94 81 69 68 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.4 -54.9 -55.0 -54.6 -55.5 -55.2 -55.4 -55.4 -55.5 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.4 -0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.1 -0.4 -0.2 -0.5 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 4 4 8 8 5 5 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 54 57 57 57 61 62 64 62 56 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 11 9 8 8 8 9 8 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -79 -89 -82 -63 -94 -73 -41 -10 3 0 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 73 24 -15 -3 -19 24 21 -7 30 43 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 32 10 8 37 28 8 12 -5 -32 -46 -89 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -187 -283 -364 -237 -170 0 304 309 110 -89 393 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.4 32.9 33.4 33.8 34.1 35.4 37.7 40.7 44.2 48.5 53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 87.7 86.3 84.8 83.0 81.1 76.5 71.7 66.5 61.0 55.5 50.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 14 16 18 21 24 26 28 29 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 3 2 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 14 CX,CY: 10/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 743 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 7. 11. 14. 16. 16. 16. 16. 15. 15. 14. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 9. 6. -1. -3. -6. -10. -12. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -5. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -5. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -8. -8. -10. -11. -15. -16. -16. -16. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -5. -6. -3. -1. 3. 4. 3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 32.4 87.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032021 CLAUDETTE 06/20/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.53 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.02 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 136.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.80 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.73 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.56 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.19 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 50.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.49 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 5.7% 4.8% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 2.1% 1.7% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032021 CLAUDETTE 06/20/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032021 CLAUDETTE 06/20/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 26 26 27 30 32 36 37 31 28 27 26 26 25 25 28 18HR AGO 25 24 24 24 25 28 30 34 35 29 26 25 24 24 23 23 26 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 22 25 27 31 32 26 23 22 21 21 20 20 23 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 19 21 25 26 20 17 16 15 15 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT