* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CLAUDETTE AL032021 06/21/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 28 29 32 32 33 36 36 37 35 34 35 36 38 41 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 30 30 33 34 35 37 38 38 37 36 37 38 39 43 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 30 30 32 33 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 4 10 8 4 9 9 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 2 -2 6 7 3 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 304 176 189 223 218 198 192 219 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 25.6 26.2 21.9 22.4 20.2 11.6 9.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 114 120 90 93 85 70 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 117 102 108 83 86 79 68 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.5 -55.0 -54.9 -54.7 -55.1 -55.3 -55.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.4 -0.2 -0.1 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 6 6 9 5 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 59 64 66 65 72 71 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 11 11 11 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -61 -70 -42 -17 -7 23 25 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 22 38 49 41 58 -13 34 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 33 -2 1 58 25 35 12 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -208 -152 -59 146 277 295 118 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.4 35.2 36.0 37.1 38.1 40.9 44.2 47.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 81.3 79.0 76.7 74.2 71.7 66.2 60.7 56.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 18 20 22 23 24 26 24 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 16 CX,CY: 15/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. 7. 6. 5. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 3. 4. 7. 7. 8. 11. 11. 12. 10. 9. 10. 11. 13. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 34.4 81.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032021 CLAUDETTE 06/21/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.86 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 124.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.81 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.61 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.39 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.33 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.95 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.4% 9.9% 7.4% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 2.5% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 4.1% 2.8% 2.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032021 CLAUDETTE 06/21/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032021 CLAUDETTE 06/21/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 26 30 30 33 34 35 37 38 38 37 36 37 38 39 43 18HR AGO 25 24 24 28 28 31 32 33 35 36 36 35 34 35 36 37 41 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 25 28 29 30 32 33 33 32 31 32 33 34 38 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 18 19 20 22 23 23 22 21 22 23 24 28 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT