* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CLAUDETTE AL032021 06/21/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 41 42 43 42 41 41 42 41 40 37 35 35 36 38 41 V (KT) LAND 35 31 35 37 38 36 36 34 36 34 33 31 29 29 30 31 34 V (KT) LGEM 35 31 35 37 39 40 41 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 11 8 2 8 6 15 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 -4 7 8 0 3 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 216 183 227 276 156 190 217 216 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.6 26.1 21.8 21.9 21.5 13.5 9.8 8.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 113 118 90 91 90 72 68 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 101 106 83 84 83 69 67 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.9 -54.7 -54.6 -55.2 -55.0 -55.4 -55.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 -0.7 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 9 5 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 62 65 63 67 68 67 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 11 10 11 9 9 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -74 -35 -3 3 10 23 24 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 37 56 57 79 54 2 35 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 -11 60 34 11 41 88 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -141 -64 126 268 259 177 95 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.1 36.1 37.0 38.3 39.5 42.8 46.2 48.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 79.0 76.8 74.5 71.7 68.9 63.4 58.7 53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 19 21 23 25 26 25 23 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 18 CX,CY: 17/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 9. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 6. 7. 6. 5. 2. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 35.1 79.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032021 CLAUDETTE 06/21/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.85 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 185.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.75 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.52 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.24 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.40 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 13.9% 9.5% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 2.8% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.9% 5.6% 3.5% 2.9% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032021 CLAUDETTE 06/21/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032021 CLAUDETTE 06/21/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 31 35 37 38 36 36 34 36 34 33 31 29 29 30 31 34 18HR AGO 35 34 38 40 41 39 39 37 39 37 36 34 32 32 33 34 37 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 34 32 32 30 32 30 29 27 25 25 26 27 30 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 24 24 22 24 22 21 19 17 17 18 19 22 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT