* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP052021 06/25/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 42 51 59 68 84 92 92 79 70 62 56 49 45 39 33 27 V (KT) LAND 35 42 51 59 68 84 92 92 79 70 62 56 49 45 39 33 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 40 46 52 58 69 77 79 75 71 67 63 57 52 47 41 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 9 5 2 5 13 15 16 21 17 17 18 16 17 25 22 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 7 7 1 -1 0 -5 0 -3 0 -3 0 -5 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 11 12 323 25 75 91 73 87 102 103 102 126 116 116 110 126 125 SST (C) 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.5 27.7 26.8 25.3 24.7 24.2 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 153 155 156 154 154 154 153 152 152 150 146 138 129 114 108 103 93 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.8 -53.4 -53.1 -53.5 -53.0 -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 8 8 6 5 4 4 3 4 3 4 3 3 2 2 0 700-500 MB RH 83 82 82 81 83 80 83 80 80 78 78 76 75 71 68 62 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 15 16 17 19 22 23 23 15 13 11 10 7 7 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 50 53 45 51 60 61 68 76 97 86 90 70 55 51 56 35 56 200 MB DIV 97 88 80 130 153 138 134 153 128 102 92 40 38 28 14 -5 -2 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 2 -1 -10 -10 -4 2 0 -1 -2 -2 -1 1 2 LAND (KM) 252 266 290 287 301 331 338 285 246 232 240 252 284 349 267 231 265 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 101.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 6 5 4 3 4 4 2 3 3 4 5 5 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 20 20 19 18 17 19 19 16 17 19 15 7 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 69.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 26. 27. 28. 28. 28. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -6. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 12. 15. 6. 3. 0. -1. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 4. 1. -0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 13. 20. 19. 11. 3. -3. -7. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 16. 24. 33. 49. 57. 57. 44. 35. 27. 21. 14. 10. 4. -2. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.9 101.2 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052021 INVEST 06/25/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.73 7.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 5.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 109.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.74 7.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.69 6.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 4.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 20.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 -6.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.15 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 3.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 37% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 49% is 8.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 41% is 8.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.0% 45.3% 30.5% 24.0% 14.1% 37.1% 49.4% 41.4% Logistic: 11.6% 45.6% 38.7% 24.6% 4.6% 52.4% 59.2% 27.7% Bayesian: 7.8% 55.9% 63.6% 42.4% 3.6% 11.7% 6.6% 5.1% Consensus: 10.5% 48.9% 44.3% 30.3% 7.5% 33.7% 38.4% 24.7% DTOPS: 14.0% 42.0% 25.0% 20.0% 13.0% 44.0% 64.0% 22.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052021 INVEST 06/25/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##