* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ENRIQUE EP052021 06/25/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 47 55 63 73 87 92 85 74 62 54 46 40 33 28 22 16 V (KT) LAND 40 47 55 63 73 87 92 85 74 62 54 46 40 33 28 22 16 V (KT) LGEM 40 46 51 58 64 76 81 77 71 65 59 54 48 41 36 30 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 3 1 1 4 10 14 19 13 14 17 15 17 20 21 25 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 7 8 4 -5 0 -2 -1 -2 0 1 0 0 -2 3 1 SHEAR DIR 14 323 340 42 122 85 93 102 107 90 121 114 130 128 132 131 139 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.2 28.9 28.6 28.0 27.5 26.8 25.5 24.6 24.1 24.1 23.1 22.3 POT. INT. (KT) 161 160 159 157 157 154 151 147 141 136 129 115 106 101 102 92 83 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.3 -53.0 -53.4 -53.3 -52.4 -52.9 -52.0 -52.8 -52.4 -53.0 -52.8 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 8 6 5 5 3 4 3 4 3 3 2 3 1 1 0 700-500 MB RH 83 79 80 80 79 77 78 74 76 72 73 69 72 66 66 57 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 16 17 17 22 24 24 19 15 11 10 8 7 6 6 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 49 43 55 63 56 79 90 109 97 92 68 68 52 48 34 29 42 200 MB DIV 89 86 136 155 96 133 99 128 105 91 27 34 26 -2 8 -4 2 700-850 TADV 0 -1 1 0 -1 -4 -12 -4 2 0 1 -1 0 0 0 2 2 LAND (KM) 232 239 222 229 237 251 223 221 217 242 272 313 247 211 235 303 359 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.9 16.2 16.4 16.6 17.1 17.8 18.4 19.0 19.3 19.7 20.2 20.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.1 102.9 103.7 104.2 104.7 105.6 106.3 106.8 107.2 107.7 108.2 108.7 109.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 25 24 22 21 20 16 16 16 10 7 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 67.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 20. 21. 22. 21. 19. 17. 15. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 7. 8. 11. 7. 3. -3. -4. -7. -7. -8. -7. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 13. 20. 18. 11. 3. -2. -7. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 15. 23. 33. 47. 52. 45. 34. 22. 14. 6. 0. -7. -12. -18. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 15.5 102.1 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052021 ENRIQUE 06/25/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.72 13.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 10.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 112.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.76 13.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.89 14.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 6.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 8.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 35.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 -11.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.19 1.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 3.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.53 1.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 71% is 5.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 61% is 7.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 52% is 8.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 8.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 62% is 9.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 61% is 10.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 41% is 8.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 23.1% 70.9% 61.4% 52.4% 35.4% 62.2% 61.4% 41.1% Logistic: 26.4% 63.8% 64.1% 50.3% 9.6% 60.2% 39.2% 10.8% Bayesian: 13.6% 62.1% 64.5% 37.6% 3.3% 33.5% 12.3% 2.2% Consensus: 21.0% 65.6% 63.3% 46.8% 16.1% 52.0% 37.7% 18.0% DTOPS: 17.0% 58.0% 34.0% 24.0% 14.0% 49.0% 53.0% 11.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052021 ENRIQUE 06/25/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##