* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ENRIQUE EP052021 06/25/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 52 60 70 78 91 92 76 66 53 44 35 29 22 17 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 52 60 70 78 91 92 76 66 53 44 35 29 22 17 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 51 56 62 68 77 77 71 63 58 53 47 41 35 29 24 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 3 1 4 10 13 17 20 10 13 12 16 18 22 22 27 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 7 8 3 0 -2 0 0 -1 -1 2 0 3 -1 2 0 4 SHEAR DIR 347 337 346 155 136 78 102 99 78 83 108 104 124 123 139 137 157 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.1 28.8 28.0 27.1 26.1 25.1 24.4 23.9 23.4 23.0 22.5 21.9 POT. INT. (KT) 159 157 157 156 156 153 150 142 132 121 111 104 99 93 90 85 79 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -52.8 -52.9 -52.4 -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 5 3 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 81 82 83 80 79 81 75 74 72 70 68 69 64 59 55 49 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 17 20 22 24 22 13 12 8 8 6 5 5 5 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 40 52 65 55 65 82 89 104 87 71 53 50 44 40 30 27 29 200 MB DIV 88 142 158 107 118 97 131 123 61 52 7 36 -10 3 -3 -11 -7 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -2 0 -1 -8 -12 -3 -1 0 0 -2 -1 0 1 3 3 LAND (KM) 245 235 244 242 246 246 208 217 256 295 300 241 193 205 260 343 396 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.1 16.3 16.6 16.8 17.3 18.2 19.0 19.6 20.0 20.4 20.8 21.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.0 103.7 104.3 104.7 105.1 105.9 106.5 107.2 108.0 108.5 108.9 109.4 110.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 4 5 4 5 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 23 22 21 20 18 16 16 10 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 71.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 16. 16. 15. 13. 11. 8. 5. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 4. 5. 7. 7. -2. -5. -9. -10. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 14. 22. 20. 11. 3. -3. -7. -11. -13. -13. -13. -12. -12. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 15. 25. 33. 46. 47. 31. 21. 8. -1. -10. -16. -23. -28. -34. -41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.8 103.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052021 ENRIQUE 06/25/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.66 13.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 11.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 122.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.81 15.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.81 14.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 9.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.86 11.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 17.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 -12.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.17 1.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 4.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.46 1.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 40% is 6.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 82% is 6.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 69% is 8.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 59% is 9.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 10.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 66% is 9.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 62% is 10.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 26% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 40.5% 81.9% 69.4% 59.1% 44.0% 65.6% 62.5% 25.8% Logistic: 30.5% 63.2% 57.2% 45.6% 8.6% 52.5% 24.1% 5.0% Bayesian: 7.5% 36.6% 49.1% 31.6% 1.1% 17.6% 3.3% 0.6% Consensus: 26.2% 60.5% 58.6% 45.4% 17.9% 45.2% 30.0% 10.4% DTOPS: 21.0% 51.0% 28.0% 18.0% 12.0% 41.0% 31.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052021 ENRIQUE 06/25/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##