* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ENRIQUE EP052021 06/26/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 63 73 82 89 97 90 78 66 56 44 36 28 20 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 63 73 82 89 97 90 78 66 56 44 36 28 20 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 62 69 75 79 83 77 71 67 61 55 47 39 32 26 21 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 5 12 13 14 17 7 7 8 11 15 20 22 25 27 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 7 1 -2 -4 3 -2 1 0 -2 2 0 0 -2 -1 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 350 292 175 133 98 91 92 92 53 111 120 136 139 141 133 138 138 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.6 27.9 26.4 24.7 24.1 23.1 21.9 21.9 22.3 22.2 21.4 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 156 155 154 152 148 141 126 107 101 90 78 77 82 82 74 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -52.8 -52.5 -53.0 -52.1 -53.1 -52.7 -53.2 -52.9 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.1 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 4 5 4 3 4 3 4 2 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 80 82 81 79 80 81 76 77 71 69 64 64 58 60 55 52 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 20 21 22 22 16 12 9 9 6 6 5 5 3 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 51 58 51 64 68 77 97 89 76 57 60 34 40 29 18 21 16 200 MB DIV 132 126 117 153 160 85 129 96 33 11 5 2 -15 -11 5 7 -13 700-850 TADV -3 -2 0 -2 -1 -11 -6 1 0 0 -1 0 0 0 1 2 5 LAND (KM) 227 240 261 263 256 224 199 195 271 241 172 126 131 177 239 293 330 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.5 16.7 16.9 17.1 17.7 18.6 19.5 20.4 20.9 21.4 21.8 22.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.8 104.5 105.2 105.5 105.7 106.2 106.7 107.3 108.3 109.1 109.6 110.3 111.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 5 3 3 5 5 6 5 4 4 4 4 3 4 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 21 20 19 17 16 16 15 10 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 69.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 5. 1. -3. -7. -11. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 1. -3. -7. -8. -12. -11. -12. -11. -11. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 13. 21. 19. 11. 3. -3. -7. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 8. 18. 27. 34. 42. 35. 23. 11. 1. -11. -19. -27. -35. -43. -49. -57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 16.2 103.8 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052021 ENRIQUE 06/26/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.56 12.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 14.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 137.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.89 18.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.64 13.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 14.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.88 12.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 36.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 -13.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.15 1.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 4.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.44 1.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 56% is 8.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 90% is 7.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 80% is 9.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 72% is 11.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 53% is 12.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 63% is 9.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 43% is 7.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 55.8% 89.9% 80.1% 71.8% 52.9% 62.9% 43.5% 13.2% Logistic: 49.5% 62.0% 53.6% 42.8% 12.9% 40.2% 10.5% 2.5% Bayesian: 53.0% 39.5% 48.0% 33.3% 2.2% 9.7% 1.2% 0.1% Consensus: 52.8% 63.8% 60.6% 49.3% 22.7% 37.6% 18.4% 5.3% DTOPS: 33.0% 73.0% 49.0% 34.0% 22.0% 41.0% 15.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052021 ENRIQUE 06/26/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##