* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ENRIQUE EP052021 06/26/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 67 75 81 85 84 74 67 56 46 38 30 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 67 75 81 85 84 74 67 56 46 38 30 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 67 72 75 76 71 65 61 58 52 47 40 32 25 20 16 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 10 11 13 11 17 14 5 8 9 13 15 17 19 23 21 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 -2 0 -3 1 1 -4 0 -2 0 -1 0 -1 0 0 1 -2 SHEAR DIR 275 184 132 102 83 91 98 76 72 133 124 140 130 146 142 155 146 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.1 27.6 25.6 24.5 23.5 22.2 20.8 21.1 22.2 22.1 21.3 POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 154 152 152 151 143 138 117 105 94 81 66 69 81 81 73 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -52.7 -52.6 -53.0 -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 -53.1 -53.1 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 5 4 3 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 81 79 77 79 80 77 77 73 72 68 67 64 61 59 54 49 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 20 23 23 22 18 10 10 8 7 7 5 5 4 4 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 55 49 63 71 81 85 97 80 69 49 46 33 41 26 32 15 17 200 MB DIV 124 115 155 176 119 120 120 47 36 -6 14 0 5 14 22 -5 -11 700-850 TADV -5 -1 -3 -4 -9 -12 0 0 -1 -3 -4 -1 -1 0 1 2 5 LAND (KM) 236 243 256 248 241 186 169 220 265 192 123 99 119 170 267 317 353 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.8 17.0 17.2 17.4 18.4 19.5 20.2 20.9 21.3 21.8 22.2 22.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.5 105.0 105.5 105.8 106.0 106.4 107.0 107.8 108.6 109.3 109.9 110.6 111.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 4 3 4 6 6 5 4 4 3 4 4 3 4 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 20 19 17 16 16 15 11 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 507 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 45.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 3. 1. -2. -6. -11. -15. -19. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 3. -0. -8. -10. -14. -16. -16. -17. -16. -16. -14. -14. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 11. 6. 2. -1. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 15. 21. 25. 24. 14. 7. -4. -14. -22. -30. -38. -46. -51. -58. -63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 16.5 104.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052021 ENRIQUE 06/26/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.50 10.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 13.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 137.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.89 17.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 19.6 to 1.3 0.53 9.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 14.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.91 12.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 61.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 -12.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.14 1.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 4.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.45 1.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 52% is 8.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 82% is 6.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 72% is 8.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 65% is 10.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 51% is 12.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 48% is 7.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 51.7% 82.3% 71.6% 65.0% 51.1% 48.0% 27.9% 11.4% Logistic: 30.6% 46.5% 35.2% 25.0% 9.3% 18.0% 5.5% 1.1% Bayesian: 37.7% 23.8% 31.5% 19.3% 1.0% 3.4% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 40.0% 50.9% 46.1% 36.4% 20.5% 23.1% 11.2% 4.2% DTOPS: 26.0% 58.0% 38.0% 30.0% 19.0% 18.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052021 ENRIQUE 06/26/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##