* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ENRIQUE EP052021 06/26/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 76 80 81 80 72 65 55 46 37 31 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 76 80 81 80 72 65 55 46 37 31 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 75 78 78 75 65 57 52 47 42 37 32 26 21 16 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 12 13 13 16 15 5 7 7 9 12 16 18 20 24 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 1 4 -1 0 0 -3 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 180 122 86 87 92 95 86 71 110 108 127 121 140 137 143 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.2 27.8 26.4 24.7 24.0 23.5 22.2 20.7 20.9 21.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 151 150 150 150 144 140 125 107 99 94 82 66 67 69 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.8 -52.5 -53.0 -53.0 -52.1 -53.1 -52.7 -53.1 -53.0 -53.5 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 4 2 4 2 3 2 3 1 1 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 80 76 79 78 77 75 74 69 69 65 66 60 58 53 51 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 24 24 22 21 14 11 8 7 5 5 4 4 3 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 63 74 76 76 106 87 72 50 47 29 26 27 22 15 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 123 145 171 107 95 119 72 32 5 9 5 -13 -3 -5 3 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -4 -6 -13 -11 -6 1 0 0 -3 -1 -1 0 1 2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 230 241 246 211 184 164 199 264 215 153 102 68 132 171 206 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.2 17.4 17.9 18.3 19.3 20.2 20.8 21.2 21.6 22.0 22.5 23.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 105.1 105.6 106.1 106.2 106.3 106.8 107.6 108.2 109.0 109.5 109.8 110.5 111.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 6 5 4 4 3 3 5 5 4 4 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 15 14 15 14 10 13 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):301/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 442 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. -0. -3. -7. -10. -14. -19. -24. -29. -32. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. -1. -6. -10. -17. -20. -23. -23. -24. -21. -20. -18. -17. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 10. 11. 10. 2. -5. -15. -24. -33. -39. -45. -52. -58. -64. -65. -65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 17.0 105.1 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052021 ENRIQUE 06/26/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.37 4.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 7.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 128.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.84 8.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.40 4.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 6.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 5.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 90.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 -6.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.12 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.49 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 43% is 6.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 51% is 4.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 42.9% 51.4% 33.5% 24.8% 15.0% 19.8% 15.0% 8.1% Logistic: 19.6% 25.0% 14.2% 8.8% 3.2% 4.6% 1.3% 0.2% Bayesian: 20.9% 8.5% 9.0% 5.9% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 27.8% 28.3% 18.9% 13.2% 6.4% 8.2% 5.4% 2.8% DTOPS: 30.0% 24.0% 16.0% 12.0% 10.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052021 ENRIQUE 06/26/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##