* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ENRIQUE EP052021 06/26/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 78 79 76 72 62 54 46 38 33 27 23 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 78 79 76 72 62 54 46 38 33 27 23 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 78 78 75 70 60 54 49 45 40 34 29 23 18 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 10 11 16 16 13 6 11 8 11 11 17 18 23 17 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 1 3 2 -4 0 -4 0 -1 2 0 0 0 3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 119 99 88 85 93 111 29 66 110 104 122 136 157 160 161 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.2 27.8 26.3 24.8 24.0 23.3 22.3 20.7 20.8 21.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 150 150 149 144 139 124 108 99 92 82 65 66 77 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.5 -52.9 -52.8 -52.4 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -53.6 -53.3 -53.5 -53.0 -53.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 78 78 77 77 77 71 72 66 67 67 63 59 53 48 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 23 21 19 16 8 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 4 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 65 74 71 73 86 97 88 83 40 40 24 25 20 28 13 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 148 163 107 93 119 122 57 46 -7 23 10 7 -2 7 -11 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -3 -14 -11 -7 -1 0 0 -4 -4 -2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 241 224 209 176 152 142 198 266 177 122 79 61 89 140 208 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.5 17.8 18.3 18.8 19.8 20.3 20.9 21.6 21.9 22.2 22.5 23.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 105.6 105.9 106.1 106.2 106.3 106.9 107.6 108.2 109.0 109.5 109.9 110.4 111.2 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 5 5 5 4 5 4 2 3 3 4 3 4 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 14 14 14 13 11 13 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 468 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -0. -3. -7. -11. -15. -19. -24. -29. -35. -37. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -4. -7. -12. -17. -23. -28. -27. -28. -27. -26. -23. -22. -20. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 1. -3. -13. -21. -29. -37. -42. -48. -52. -59. -64. -70. -70. -70. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 17.2 105.6 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052021 ENRIQUE 06/26/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.32 2.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 5.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 126.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.83 6.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.33 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 4.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 3.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 92.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 -4.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.11 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.57 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 27.8% 31.2% 22.5% 21.8% 13.1% 17.9% 13.3% 0.0% Logistic: 7.2% 9.6% 4.8% 2.4% 0.9% 1.1% 0.5% 0.1% Bayesian: 6.6% 2.6% 2.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 13.9% 14.5% 9.9% 8.4% 4.7% 6.4% 4.6% 0.0% DTOPS: 16.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052021 ENRIQUE 06/26/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##