* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ENRIQUE EP052021 06/27/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 77 77 74 70 62 55 46 39 33 26 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 77 77 74 70 62 55 46 39 33 26 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 76 74 70 65 56 50 45 40 36 30 25 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 7 13 15 16 8 4 8 10 10 12 18 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 2 3 -1 -1 1 -2 -1 -1 1 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 102 71 84 80 88 113 64 78 114 120 105 140 157 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.3 28.0 27.5 25.6 24.7 23.3 21.8 21.0 21.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 151 149 145 141 137 117 107 93 77 67 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.0 -52.9 -52.6 -52.2 -53.1 -52.7 -53.1 -53.0 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 4 4 3 4 2 3 1 2 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 79 79 78 76 76 75 70 70 66 68 61 66 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 20 17 14 9 8 6 5 4 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 58 64 61 76 97 80 72 47 42 27 24 18 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 170 115 83 107 126 62 45 12 5 2 10 12 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -7 -11 -11 -5 0 1 1 -3 -1 -2 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 266 229 199 178 162 175 219 253 162 79 58 67 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.6 18.0 18.6 19.2 19.7 20.3 21.1 21.7 22.2 22.8 23.1 23.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 105.9 106.1 106.2 106.5 106.7 107.2 107.8 108.5 109.1 109.9 110.6 110.9 110.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 6 5 3 5 4 4 4 3 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 14 15 14 11 11 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 432 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -4. -8. -12. -17. -22. -27. -30. -32. -34. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -13. -20. -23. -24. -26. -25. -23. -21. -19. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. -1. -5. -13. -20. -29. -36. -42. -49. -55. -61. -60. -60. -60. -59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 17.1 105.9 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052021 ENRIQUE 06/27/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.31 2.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 120.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.80 5.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 19.6 to 1.3 0.39 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 4.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 3.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 93.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 -4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.55 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.2% 25.1% 20.9% 19.9% 12.2% 16.3% 12.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.7% 6.1% 2.8% 1.3% 0.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.3% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.7% 10.6% 8.0% 7.1% 4.2% 5.7% 4.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 16.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052021 ENRIQUE 06/27/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##