* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ENRIQUE EP052021 06/27/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 81 80 77 75 70 63 55 50 45 35 26 19 20 21 21 23 V (KT) LAND 80 81 80 77 75 70 63 55 50 41 37 28 21 22 23 23 25 V (KT) LGEM 80 80 78 75 71 64 59 53 48 39 36 28 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 13 14 11 8 4 4 3 6 6 13 13 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 1 -3 0 0 -1 -1 -3 0 0 -1 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 61 66 76 79 86 22 40 142 128 123 94 126 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.2 26.8 25.5 24.6 23.7 21.9 21.3 21.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 152 151 150 149 144 129 116 107 97 78 71 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.9 -52.7 -52.4 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 4 5 3 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 79 77 77 79 79 72 72 67 67 67 65 63 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 20 16 15 13 12 10 10 10 8 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 62 59 68 91 86 76 93 47 54 38 45 31 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 116 92 81 113 98 52 67 13 27 -13 16 -2 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -7 -7 -1 -1 0 1 0 -3 -5 -3 -1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 236 190 154 135 117 156 251 211 96 -6 14 18 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.4 18.0 18.5 19.0 19.5 20.4 21.1 21.5 22.3 23.0 23.5 24.0 24.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 105.9 106.0 106.1 106.2 106.4 107.2 108.0 108.6 109.3 110.0 110.6 111.2 111.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 5 5 6 5 4 4 5 4 4 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 14 14 12 11 13 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 481 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. -2. -7. -12. -16. -21. -26. -32. -34. -36. -39. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -14. -16. -16. -19. -22. -21. -19. -17. -16. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -3. -5. -10. -17. -25. -30. -35. -45. -54. -61. -60. -59. -58. -57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 17.4 105.9 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052021 ENRIQUE 06/27/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.28 2.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 100.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.69 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.47 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 3.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 3.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 103.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 -4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.41 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.6% 22.4% 19.2% 18.2% 11.2% 15.5% 11.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 6.4% 2.8% 1.3% 0.4% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.4% 9.9% 7.5% 6.6% 3.9% 5.5% 3.7% 0.0% DTOPS: 12.0% 5.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052021 ENRIQUE 06/27/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##