* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ENRIQUE EP052021 06/27/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 79 76 72 70 65 58 49 40 32 24 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 79 76 72 70 65 58 49 40 35 26 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 79 75 70 65 60 55 50 43 35 31 25 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 15 10 8 4 4 5 8 9 12 14 17 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 7 1 1 0 -1 -2 -1 -1 0 -2 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 71 87 85 78 61 25 58 103 126 121 141 153 184 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.2 28.1 27.1 25.8 24.7 23.1 21.9 21.3 20.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 146 144 144 143 132 119 108 91 78 72 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.7 -52.3 -52.8 -53.2 -52.8 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.0 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 4 3 3 4 3 4 2 3 1 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 78 78 79 78 77 73 73 67 68 65 64 59 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 19 13 12 12 9 9 7 6 4 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 59 71 99 84 78 87 68 58 39 37 25 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 82 88 119 104 71 60 33 12 -1 8 2 -5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -16 -16 -4 -2 0 0 0 -1 -1 -2 0 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 188 161 146 142 139 177 235 207 72 0 6 16 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.4 18.9 19.3 19.7 20.4 20.9 21.6 22.5 23.2 23.7 24.3 25.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 105.9 106.1 106.3 106.6 106.8 107.4 107.9 108.5 109.4 110.2 110.7 111.5 112.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 4 4 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 12 11 10 10 13 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 461 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -8. -12. -17. -22. -27. -33. -35. -38. -40. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -17. -21. -23. -25. -25. -22. -20. -18. -17. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -8. -10. -15. -22. -31. -40. -48. -56. -62. -67. -66. -66. -65. -64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 17.9 105.9 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052021 ENRIQUE 06/27/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.24 1.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 92.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.65 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.50 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 3.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 3.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 106.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 -4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.08 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.42 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.0% 21.9% 18.7% 17.7% 10.9% 14.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 5.9% 2.8% 1.3% 0.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.8% 9.4% 7.3% 6.4% 3.7% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052021 ENRIQUE 06/27/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##